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Convergence of Gold and Dollar: Precursor to Stock Market Downturn?

The close movement between gold and the dollar, typically seen as defensive assets, is currently signaling a potential deep correction in the S&P 500. Historically, when these two assets converge in behavior, it often precedes significant downturns in the stock market, suggesting that investors should brace for possible declines.

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Moderate U.S. Inflation Rise Suggests Fed Could Keep Rates Steady Until Fall

U.S. inflation edged up in March, meeting expectations and reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve will likely hold off on interest rate cuts until September. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% last month, the same as in February, according to the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis. This steady increase, in line with market forecasts, suggests that the central bank will maintain its current rate policy for the time being.

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Traders Increase Bets on September Fed Rate Cut Following Inflation Report

Traders are increasingly betting on the U.S. Federal Reserve initiating its first interest rate cut of the year in September, following a recent government inflation report. This report, which indicated that the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 0.3% from February to March, has influenced interest rate futures prices. These now suggest a 65% probability of a rate cut during the Fed's mid-September meeting, a noticeable increase from the previous likelihood of less than 60%.

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Core Fed Inflation Metric Surpasses Expectations, Rising 2.8% in March

Inflation persisted in March, as revealed by the Federal Reserve's closely monitored personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. Excluding food and energy, the core PCE index rose by 2.8% year-over-year, surpassing the anticipated 2.7%, according to the Commerce Department. Including these volatile categories, the overall PCE index also exceeded expectations, climbing 2.7% compared to a forecasted 2.6%. Despite these figures indicating sustained inflationary pressure, market response was muted, with Treasury yields dipping slightly and Wall Street poised for a positive open.

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