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Fed Unlikely to Cut Interest Rates Soon Despite Earlier Projections

Americans should not expect interest rate cuts soon, as the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to keep rates steady in its upcoming decision, influenced by a strong jobs report. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 99.4% chance of unchanged rates. Despite initial projections for three rate cuts this year, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that the central bank will maintain current rates until the economy shows sufficient signs of cooling.

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Think Tank Expert Recommends Measures to Halt De-Dollarization

To counter de-dollarization, the US should maintain domestic stability, pursue strong trade partnerships, and promote technological solutions, according to Carla Norrlöf, a think tank expert. Although the move away from the US dollar by countries like Russia, China, and other BRICS states has accelerated, Norrlöf believes that with strategic actions, the US can keep the dollar dominant. While de-dollarization has gained attention, its impact remains uncertain.

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Bond Market's Recession Alarm Continues, Stock Market Impact Uncertain

A bond-market indicator signaling a recession has been flashing since 2022, the longest on record, but it doesn't always predict immediate stock market trouble. Verdad Advisers analysts suggest this time might be different. Typically, equity investors react negatively when an inverted yield curve steepens, as it often signals a Fed response to economic downturns. However, the Fed's planned rate cuts aim to achieve a soft landing amidst ongoing economic growth, potentially leading to a prolonged inverted yield curve without immediate adverse effects.

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Consumer Price Growth Slows, Potential Relief for Fed Rate Decisions

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight and unexpected dip in May, suggesting potential price relief for consumers and raising questions about the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Annual inflation eased to 3.3% from 3.4% in April, below expectations. Monthly inflation was flat, the lowest since July 2022, and core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2%, the lowest since October. These figures indicate a possible normalization of inflation, which could influence the Fed's future rate decisions, though rates are expected to remain unchanged for now.

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Dollar Tumbles as Traders Anticipate Fed Rate Cuts Following Inflation Data

The dollar fell on Wednesday after data showed May's consumer prices rose less than expected, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates as soon as September. Headline inflation was flat, and core prices increased by 0.2%, both below forecasts. This has boosted the probability of a September rate cut to 73%, up from 53% the previous day, and increased expectations of a second rate cut by year-end.

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