U.S. Economic Momentum Slows, S&P Surveys Indicate
Published: Tuesday, 23 April 2024 03:54 | 
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April saw the U.S. economy lose steam, according to recent S&P surveys, with businesses experiencing a downturn in new orders and a cutback in employment—the first since the pandemic began. The manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped to a four-month low of 49.9, slipping below the growth threshold from 51.9 in March. Similarly, the services PMI decreased to 50.9 from 51.7, marking a five-month low.
U.S. Business Activity Slows to Four-Month Low; Mixed Inflation Signals Emerge
Published: Tuesday, 23 April 2024 02:56 | |
| In April, U.S. business activity slowed to its lowest level in four months, driven by diminished demand. Concurrently, inflation indicators presented a mixed view: although the rate of inflation showed slight easing, input prices still surged, hinting at potential future relief if the economy continues to decelerate. This trend is particularly relevant as the Federal Reserve monitors for signs of slowing economic activity that might further reduce inflation pressures. S&P Global reported on Tuesday that its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index declined to 50.9 from 52.1 in March. A reading above 50 still signifies expansion, indicating continued growth in the private sector despite the slowdown.
Goldman Sachs Cautiously Optimistic About Stock Market Rally Despite Emerging Risks
Published: Tuesday, 23 April 2024 02:27 | |
| Despite recent downturns in the U.S. stock market, optimism remains high among investors, particularly regarding corporate earnings. According to a Bloomberg survey of 409 participants, nearly two-thirds express confidence that forthcoming corporate results will bolster the S&P 500 index—an optimism level not seen since the question was first posed in October 2022. Goldman Sachs strategists Dominic Wilson and Kamakshya Trivedi have described the situation as "paradise postponed," acknowledging emerging near-term risks to stocks, which they believe are concerning but not disastrous. Throughout the year, they have maintained a relatively positive outlook on the impact of the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates this year.
US Business Activity Slows, Marking Weakest Growth in Four Months
Published: Tuesday, 23 April 2024 02:19 | |
| In April, US business activity experienced its slowest expansion of the year, triggered by a significant pullback in demand. This slowdown resulted in the first employment decline seen since 2020. The S&P Global flash composite index, which tracks output at manufacturers and service providers, fell 1.2 points to 50.9—the most substantial drop since August. While readings above 50 still denote expansion, the downturn is notable. Moreover, the composite measure of orders indicated the first contraction in six months, signaling potential challenges ahead for the US economy.
JPMorgan Cautions Investors: Stock Market Troubles Not Over Yet
Published: Tuesday, 23 April 2024 12:38 | |
| JPMorgan suggests that the recent stock market rebound does not signal the end of a sell-off, with the potential for further declines. The market outlook is dimmed by persistent inflation, a potential shift from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts to a realization of sustained higher rates, and stock valuations still above historical averages. Chief market strategist Marko Kolanovic indicates that while stock prices may stabilize in the short term due to earnings reports, the overarching market sentiment is one of caution. Kolanovic points to overconfidence in equity valuations, unyielding inflation, adjustments in Federal Reserve policies, and potentially too optimistic profit projections as reasons for his concern about the market's future.