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Metals News

Potential 2025 Recession Could Plunge Stock Market by 30%, Experts Warn

BCA strategist Roukaya Ibrahim predicts that a recession by early 2025, influenced by continued unemployment and economic difficulties in China, could lead to a 30% decline in the stock market. This view is echoed by Wall Street veteran Gary Shilling, who shared similar concerns with Business Insider. Ibrahim identifies two key factors that signal an impending recession by the end of this year or early next, potentially triggering a significant market correction.

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Beyond the Numbers: The Varied Impact of Inflation

Inflation, while a key economic indicator, does not impact all demographics uniformly due to the aggregate nature of its measurement. Monthly inflation rates are calculated based on a general basket of goods which may not reflect the true spending habits of various groups, such as low-income or rural families. By examining disaggregated product groups and leveraging high-frequency online price data, researchers can uncover how inflation differentially affects diverse populations, revealing that the experience of inflation varies significantly among different groups.

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2024 U.S. Election: A Turning Point for Gold and Other Key Commodities

The upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election is poised to significantly influence the markets for gold, silver, Platinum Group Metals (PGMs), copper, and crude oil. Regardless of whether the current political balance of power remains or shifts, the anticipated policy debates and adjustments in response to public opinion are expected to shape market dynamics. Notably, a potential change in administration could lead to reduced environmental spending impacting copper and silver negatively, while possibly benefiting PGMs and fossil fuels. The election's outcome will also affect America's foreign policy stance, particularly towards China and Iran, further influencing gold and oil prices.

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Gold and Copper Shine Bright: The Start of a Prolonged Bull Market

In the midst of escalating geopolitical tensions, gold and copper have become key commodities, not just weathering market volatility but flourishing. Gold, a long-established safe-haven asset, has seen prices soar to near record highs due to its appeal in uncertain times, with central banks, especially in emerging markets, significantly boosting their reserves—290 tons in the first quarter of 2024 alone, a record according to the World Gold Council. This trend underscores a strategic pivot towards gold as a reserve currency, moving away from the U.S. dollar, and suggests that both gold and copper may be at the start of a prolonged bull market that investors should closely watch.

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China’s Aging Population Catalyzes a New Era in Gold Jewelry Demand

China's "silver economy," driven by the middle-aged and elderly populations, is sparking a new gold rush. In 2023, retail sales from large-scale jewelry enterprises soared to 331 billion RMB ($45.7 billion), marking a 13.3% year-over-year increase, one of the highest growth rates across consumer goods. This surge in demand, both for personal adornment and investment, has prompted a significant uptick in new business registrations in the jewelry sector. Over 2.6 million new companies were registered from January to October 2023 alone, demonstrating an 89.9% increase from the previous year.

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