Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema - the lone Democrat holdout on the Biden administration's revamped reconciliation bill - has finally signed off on it, after Democrats agreed to preserve the so-called carried interest loophole that allows investment managers (like her former bosses) to shield the majority of their income from higher taxes.
After more than a decade of mostly losing out, the Internal Revenue Service may finally get the cash infusion it's long wanted in the economic package that Democrats are working furiously to push through Congress before their August break.
With inflation climbing to multi-decade highs and price pressures broadening out, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that there's now a "substantial risk" that high inflation becomes a more permanent fixture and that expectations around future rates of inflation could become unmoored and drive a wage-price spiral.
Some economists — including former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers — say Powell is being much too optimistic about the Fed’s ability to tame prices without pushing unemployment much higher. The implication: The Fed chief, who has sought to elevate the central bank’s focus on boosting the labor market, may be forced to accept millions of job losses and a significant recession to curb inflation.
And the “sizzling” jobs report isn’t feeling any love in the bond market where the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) deepened its inversion to -37.593 basis points, a drop of -1.331 BPS. Note that the 10Y-2Y curve falls below 0% just prior to every recession.