Convergence of Gold and Dollar: Precursor to Stock Market Downturn?

The close movement between gold and the dollar, typically seen as defensive assets, is currently signaling a potential deep correction in the S&P 500. Historically, when these two assets converge in behavior, it often precedes significant downturns in the stock market, suggesting that investors should brace for possible declines.

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U.S. GDP Growth Stumbles to 1.6% in Q1, Missing Economic Forecasts

The U.S. economy started the year on a weaker note than anticipated, with the GDP growth rate decelerating to 1.6% in the first quarter, as reported by the Commerce Department. This figure significantly undershot the 2.4% growth economists had projected based on surveys by Dow Jones. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which gauges the total output of goods and services, showed a marked slowdown from the 3.4% increase in the final quarter of 2023 and the 4.9% rise in the quarter before that. While consumer spending did grow by 2.5%, it was less robust compared to the 3.3% increase in the previous quarter and also fell short of the 3% expected by Wall Street analysts.

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Dollar's Decline Fuels Gold's Advance; All Eyes on U.S. Economic Data

Gold prices experienced a notable increase on Thursday, primarily driven by a declining U.S. dollar. Investors are now closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, which could provide significant insights into the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions. As of midday in London, spot gold climbed 0.6% to reach $2,328.61 per ounce. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures saw a modest rise of 0.1%, settling at $2,341.00 per ounce.

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In Response to a Steady Fed, Southeast Asia Adjusts Rates to Safeguard Currencies

As 2024 unfolds, the anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve might reduce interest rates has waned. Initially, the consensus was that a rate cut was imminent; however, four months into the year, the Fed's updated stance suggests no rush to lower rates, supported by a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy and persistent inflation. This cautious approach by the Fed is not just a concern for analysts and investors. Central bankers globally, particularly in Southeast Asia, are scrutinizing the Fed's moves closely. Their decisions on whether to adjust interest rates hinge significantly on the Fed's actions to avoid adverse impacts on their own currencies.

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