U.S. agriculture has been facing a poor harvest this year, aggravating the global food supply crisis, industry executives have said.

The view from Costco Wholesale, the warehouse retailer known for its competitive prices, seems as good as any to start. And the comments made by CFO Richard Galanti on its conference call suggest the Fed will still be in inflation-fighting mode for the rest of the year, though perhaps a pivot could come next year.

It’s like a dam broke. And now higher interest rates and mortgage rates for much longer, with lower asset prices, as the Everything Bubble gets repriced.

The Composite PMI rose to 49.3 in September, up from 44.6 in August, solidly beating expectations of 465.1, and signaled a softer and only marginal decline in private sector business activity. The decrease was also the slowest in the current three-month sequence of contraction.